Tuesday, 28 September 2010
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Existing Home Sales rebounded last month after a lackluster July. New Home Sales data, by contrast, did not.
After an upward revision to July’s data, New Home Sales remained unchanged at 288,000 units in August. It marks the second-lowest number of units sold in a month since 1963, the year government started its record-keeping.
At the current pace of sales, the newly-built home inventory would be depleted in 8.6 months.
The August New Home Sales was weaker-than-expected, but both Wall Street investors and Main Street economists are shrugging it off. The numbers were foreshadowed by weakening housing figures from earlier this summer.
For example:
- Building Permits dropped between March and June
- Housing Starts dropped between April and July
- Homebuilder confidence continues to sag
Together, these three data points suggest that the market for new homes will be soft through at least this month.
With New Home Sales fading and colder months ahead, it may be an opportune time for home buyers in Washington to look at new construction. Builders are eager to move inventory and the cost of materials remains low.
Buying “new” may never be cheaper — especially with mortgage rates as low as they are. The 0.750 percent drop in rates since January has shaved $188 off of a $200,000 mortgage’s monthly cost. That’s $2,250 per year in savings.
As home supplies dwindle and mortgage rates rise, finding “great deals” in new construction will undoubtedly get tougher. Take advantage of today’s market conditions, combined with builder pessimism. It may be the right combination at the right time to get that new home for cheap.
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Monday, 27 September 2010
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Sales of existing homes in recovered in August, perhaps the result of a post-tax credit normalization.
As compared to July, Existing Home Sales rose 8 percent in August, buoyed by falling interest rates and slow-to-rise home prices. There’s lot of “good deals” out there and home buyers in Pittsburgh are taking advantage.
The housing gains are relative, however. August’s total units sold barely crossed 4 million and still trails the average figures of the last few years by close to 1 million units.
Despite that, the August Existing Home Sales report can be considered a strong one. This is for several reasons:
- Sales volume increased in August without tax credit or government intervention
- Sales growth is not limited by geography. All 4 regions — Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, and West — showed improvement last month.
- Repeat buyers are driving the market, representing 48 percent of sales, up from forty-three percent in July.
And, perhaps most important to the housing market market, the number of available home resales dropped by almost one full month last month. At the current sales pace, the national inventory would be depleted in 11.6 months.
For home buyers, the data presents an interesting opportunity. With average mortgage rates rising from their best levels ever and home affordability cresting in places like Canonsburg , this autumn may represent the turn-around point for the housing market nationwide.
If you’re planning to move in early-2011, consider moving up your time frame.
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Wednesday, 22 September 2010
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Today, in its 7th meeting of the year, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.
The Fed Funds Rate remains at a historical low, within a Fed’s target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
In its press release, the FOMC said that the pace of economic recovery “has slowed” in recent months. Household spending is increasing but remains restrained by high levels of unemployment, falling home values, and restrictive credit.
For the second straight month, the Federal Reserve showed less economic optimism as compared to the prior year’s worth of FOMC statements dating back to June 2009. However, the Fed still expects growth to be “modest in the near-term”.
This outlook is consistent with recent research showing that the recession is over, and that growth has resumed — albeit at a slower pace than what was originally expected.
The Fed also highlighted strengths in the economy:
- Growth is ongoing on a national level
- Inflation levels remain exceedingly low
- Business spending is rising
As expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”.
There were no surprises in the Fed’s statement so, as a result, the mortgage market’s reaction to the release has been neutral. Mortgage rates in Pennsylvania are thus far unchanged this afternoon.
The FOMC’s next meeting is a 2-day affair scheduled for November 2-3, 2010.
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Tuesday, 21 September 2010
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Is it better to rent a Pittsburgh home, or to buy one? The answer may not be as clear-cut as you think. In this balanced, 3-minute joint interview from NBC’s The Today Show, you’ll hear the case for both sides.
From the pro-renting part of the talk, there’s valid points about the economic impact of low credit scores and/or no cash for downpayment, and the ongoing, annual cost of home maintenance — estimated at 2% of a home’s value. Plus, renters have the ability to “follow a job” to a new town or region whereas a homeowner may be restricted, somewhat.
From the pro-purchase part, however, there’s excellent points that were made, too:
- Mortgage rates are low and each 1% drop to rates equates to a 9% drop to home price
- Buyers can zero in on a particular area with particular schools or walkability, for example, better than renters
- A home can a piggybank over the long-term; a place for “forced savings” for families that want it
The segment then closes with 5 of the best cities in which to rent, and 5 of the best cities in which to buy.
Whether buying or renting, don’t try to go at it alone. There’s lot of resources online, and an email to a local real estate or mortgage pro can set you in the right direction.
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Monday, 20 September 2010
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If a home is an expression of personality, then these 10 homes say something unique about their owners.
Culled by Zillow, this list of one-of-a-kind properties make for excellent party conversation. There’s the “round house”, the geodesic dome, the firehouse home, and the earth-ship, among others.
Some highlights from the collection:
- The Shoe House (Hallham, PA) : The Shoe House was completed in 1949. It’s pink, it’s made of stucco, it’s 25-feet tall, and in the shape of a workboot. Oh, and every window is decorated with a stained glass shoe.
- The Cave House (Festus, MO) : This 15,000 square foot home is tucked inside a mountain, and consists of three chambers — one for the bedrooms, one for laundry and storage, and one where musicians like Bob Seger once performed. Because of geothermal and passive solar heat, this home is extremely energy-efficient.
- The Decommissioned Missile Site House (Othello, WA) : If you’ve ever dreamed of owning a decommissioned Titan 1 missile complex, than this is the home for you. Located roughly 3 hours east of Seattle, this home is built to withstand nuclear blasts. It’s a 6-story descent to the 125-foot diameter “center room” with 65-foot ceilings. Missiles not included.
A few of the properties as listed by Zillow are for sale and most have accompanying pictures. Unfortunately, buyers of the homes should expect to pay cash because getting a mortgage for a unique home can be veritable challenge.
(Image courtesy: Zillow)
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Sunday, 19 September 2010
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Supermarket aisles in the Washington area are filled with specialty cleansers — some for the kitchen, some for the bathroom, some for the carpets. Loaded with chemicals, these cleansers can be tough on the environment and costly, too.
If you’re in search of an alternative, consider white distilled vinegar. It’s inexpensive, safe to store, and highly effective as a household cleanser.
White vinegar’s strength comes from its acidity, roughly 8%. It’s acidity kills most mold, germs, and bacteria, and can remove minerals deposits from coffee makers and glass surfaces.
Some uses for white distilled vinegar include:
- Cleaning the garbage disposal : 1/2 cup hot white distilled vinegar + 1/2 cup baking soda. Pour down drain and let sit for 5 minutes. Run hot water to flush it.
- Removing lunch box odors : Soak bread slice in white distilled vinegar. Place it in lunch box overnight.
- Remove dark spots on aluminum pots : Mix 1 cup white distilled vinegar + 1 cup hot water. Boil in pot.
- Brighten carpets : Mix solution of 1 cup white distilled vinegar + 1 gallon water. Test on inconspicuous area first.
- Remove water rings from wood : Mix solution of 1/4 cup white distilled vinegar + 1/4 cup vegetable oil. Rub with the grain.
White distilled vinegar is extremely versatile, but it can strip finish from counter-tops and floors if left to soak. Be sure to exercise care, therefore, when using vinegar at home.
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Saturday, 18 September 2010
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With Labor Day looming, the autumn and winter months aren’t far behind. It’s a good time to reflect on your home’s heating and cooling costs, and take steps to lower your energy bills. Finding air leaks may be a perfect first project.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, up to 30 percent can be cut from a home’s energy costs just by reducing drafts. For example, a 1/16-inch gap unsealed gap around a window is equivalent to leaving the window 3 inches open.
That’s a lot of wasted Pittsburgh air.
The good news is that air leaks are rather simple to identify, and simple to fix. The key is to know where to look. And, to make the job easier, the government offers a complete DIY Guide To Sealing and Insulating a home.
Some of the key tips include:
- Focus on the attic and basement, where most air is lost
- Locate problem areas on a chimney
- Check recessed lights which allow air flow between conditioned and unconditioned air
The government’s website also provides a 13-page PDF with detailed images, instructions, and recommendation to help you with the work.
However, if the job is beyond your skill set, be sure to call a qualified contractor. Sealing your home from air leaks will reduce your monthly energy bill and the money spent to pay a professional will be just a fraction of what you’ll save over time.
(Image courtesy: US Department of Energy)
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Friday, 17 September 2010
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The private-sector Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 5 percent nationwide in June. The government’s own Home Price Index, however, reached a different conclusion.
According to the Federal Home Finance Agency, month-to-month home values fell 0.3 percent in June, and values are down by 1.7 percent from June 2009.
So, as a home buyer and/or homeowner in Pittsburgh , by which valuation model should you make your bets? Perhaps neither.
This is because both the Case-Shiller Index and the Home Price have inherent methodology flaws, the most glaring of which is their respective sample sets.
The Case-Shiller sample set, for example, comes from just 20 cities across the country — and they’re not even the 20 most populated cities. Together, the Case-Shiller cities represent just 9 percent of the overall U.S. population.
That’s hardly representative of the housing stock overall.
By comparison, the Home Price Index tracks home sales everywhere — every city in every state — but it specifically excludes certain properties. The Home Price Index does not track sales of homes for which the financing comes from agencies other than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. This means that as FHA loans grow in popularity, the pool of Home Price Index-eligible homes is reducing.
The HPI ignores homes backed by “jumbo” loans, too.
Therefore, the “right” model for home values cannot come from national data at all — it can only come locally. Neither Case-Shiller nor the government has the tools to get as granular as a neighborhood like Canonsburg. A real estate agent in the area does, however.
The best way to get a pulse for what’s happening in markets right now is to talk to somebody with good data.
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Friday, 17 September 2010
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The private-sector Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 5 percent nationwide in June. The government’s own Home Price Index, however, reached a different conclusion.
According to the Federal Home Finance Agency, month-to-month home values fell 0.3 percent in June, and values are down by 1.7 percent from June 2009.
So, as a home buyer and/or homeowner in Pittsburgh , by which valuation model should you make your bets? Perhaps neither.
This is because both the Case-Shiller Index and the Home Price have inherent methodology flaws, the most glaring of which is their respective sample sets.
The Case-Shiller sample set, for example, comes from just 20 cities across the country — and they’re not even the 20 most populated cities. Together, the Case-Shiller cities represent just 9 percent of the overall U.S. population.
That’s hardly representative of the housing stock overall.
By comparison, the Home Price Index tracks home sales everywhere — every city in every state — but it specifically excludes certain properties. The Home Price Index does not track sales of homes for which the financing comes from agencies other than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. This means that as FHA loans grow in popularity, the pool of Home Price Index-eligible homes is reducing.
The HPI ignores homes backed by “jumbo” loans, too.
Therefore, the “right” model for home values cannot come from national data at all — it can only come locally. Neither Case-Shiller nor the government has the tools to get as granular as a neighborhood like Canonsburg. A real estate agent in the area does, however.
The best way to get a pulse for what’s happening in markets right now is to talk to somebody with good data.
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Thursday, 16 September 2010
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According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, the number of foreclosure filings climbed 4 percent in August from the month prior. A foreclosure filing is defined as default notice, scheduled auction, or bank repossession.
Despite the number of filings surpassing 300,000 for the 18th straight month, RealtyTrac’s report shows some bright spots for housing.
- The number of default notices served per month fell for the 7th time this year
- Foreclosure activity in Nevada, the nation’s leading foreclosure state, is down 25% from last August
- Foreclosure activity has not materially increased since early-2009, pointing to a stabilization
In addition, each of the 10 leading metro areas for foreclosures posted year-over-year declines for the second month in a row.
But, perhaps, most important, is that mortgage lenders and servicers appear to be managing their REO more effectively, making properties available for sale at a measured pace as opposed to flooding markets with new homes. As noted by RealtyTrac, the probable reason is “to prevent further erosion of home prices”.
For home sellers, it’s a welcome development.
Foreclosures have had a hand in falling home values in Pennsylvania and across the country. And, although it’s self-serving for banks to meter the release of homes under ownership, everyday homeowners benefit, too. Fewer homes on the market helps to provide a floor for Washington housing values.
If you have an interest in buying foreclosed homes, be sure to talk with a real estate agent first. The process of buying a home from a bank is different from buying from “a person”. Having the help of a professional should work to your benefit.
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Tuesday, 14 September 2010
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Want a lower mortgage rate on your upcoming Pittsburgh home buy? Think about moving up the closing date.
The reason is rooted in “rate locks”, a bank’s guarantee to honor a specific mortgage rate for a specific, finite period of time. Rate locks allow home buyers to reserve mortgage rates today even though their respective closings may be scheduled as far as a year into the future.
A rate lock is a contract. No matter what the “current market rate” is at the time of closing, the bank will honor the terms of the original rate lock.
It would be like making an agreement to buy Microsoft stock at a specific price 60 days from now. No matter what the price, you already know what you’re paying for it.
In this sense, rate locks are predictions about the future and, meanwhile, as we all know, the future can be a challenge to forecast. Lenders know this, too, of course, so it’s easy to understand why longer rate locks tend to be more expensive than shorter ones.
The longer the rate lock, the more risk to the bank.
To compensate for this “time risk”, therefore, lenders typically step-up pricing for rate lock guarantees as lock period lengthen.
- 15-day rate lock : The best of all pricing
- 30-day rate lock : 1/8 percent extra cost versus the 15-day rate lock
- 45-day rate lock : 1/4 percent extra cost versus the 15-day rate lock
- 60-day rate lock : 3/8 percent extra cost versus the 15-day rate lock
One percent of “extra cost” is defined as one percent of the borrowed amount.
Now, this incremental price chart is just a rough guideline; exact spreads vary from lender-to-lender. Overall, however, it’s fairly close.
That’s why it’s important to manage your closing date vis-a-vis your mortgage rate. Closing in 30 days versus 31 can save you an eighth-percent in closing costs. Assuming a loan size of $200,000, that’s $2,500 saved.
So, when negotiating a closing date on a contract, keep in mind the math of mortgage rate locks. The shorter its length, the more money you might save.
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